Protecting Northern Colorado’s water starts upstream—and requires making the right investments in the right places.
The Watershed Investment Tool (WIT) is a one-of-a-kind, science-based risk assessment tool developed by Peaks to People in partnership with the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute. Designed specifically to protect water supplies from severe wildfire, the WIT helps prioritize forest treatments where they can deliver the greatest return on investment for reducing wildfire risk.
Today, we are excited to introduce WIT 3.0, the most advanced and locally calibrated version of the tool to date.
By integrating the latest wildfire science, updated fuels data, and locally informed modeling, WIT 3.0 provides a clearer, more accurate understanding of wildfire risk across the Big Thompson and Cache la Poudre watersheds—and a stronger roadmap for strategic action.
👉 Explore the tool: Watershed Investment Tool
Why This Update Matters
Our forests are constantly changing. Recent wildfires, evolving forest conditions, completed treatment projects, and advances in fire modeling mean that yesterday’s assumptions no longer tell the full story.
Rather than relying on static plans, Peaks to People uses a dynamic, continuously improving approach grounded in the best available science. WIT 3.0 reflects today’s conditions and incorporates years of new local data and learning.
This update includes:
- Locally calibrated wildfire modeling developed through the Northern Colorado Fireshed Collaborative
- Updated 2020 fuels data that captures real-world treatment and wildfire impacts
- Custom burn probability modeling (FSim) simulating thousands of years of wildfire activity
- Post-fire conditions, including impacts from the 2024 Alexander Mountain Fire
The result is a more precise understanding of where wildfire poses the greatest threat to drinking water supplies—and where investments can have the greatest impact.
A Clearer Picture of Risk—and Opportunity
WIT 3.0 shows that wildfire risk to drinking water supplies across the Big Thompson and Cache la Poudre watersheds is significantly higher than earlier analyses indicated.
This updated understanding is driven largely by:
- More accurate, locally calibrated burn probability modeling
- Improved representation of fire behavior across the landscape
- Better accounting for current forest conditions and wildfire impacts
Importantly, this does not mean wildfire risk suddenly increased overnight. It means we now understand the landscape more clearly and can make smarter, more targeted investments moving forward.
WIT 3.0 also reinforces a critical insight: not all acres carry equal risk. Wildfire threats to water supplies are highly concentrated in specific areas, meaning strategic treatments in the right locations can produce outsized benefits for communities downstream.
Reanalyzing the Big Thompson Initiative
When Peaks to People launched the Big Thompson Initiative in 2021, we used the best available science and modeling at the time, including earlier versions of the Watershed Investment Tool—to establish ambitious targets for reducing wildfire risk to water supplies.
As part of the WIT 3.0 update, we reanalyzed the Big Thompson Initiative using the latest data, improved wildfire modeling, and updated landscape conditions to ensure our strategy reflects the most accurate understanding of risk available today.
This updated analysis strengthens our approach.
WIT 3.0 confirms that strategic, data-driven investments remain one of the most effective ways to protect water supplies from severe wildfire. It also demonstrates that risk is more concentrated—and therefore more addressable through targeted action—than previously understood.
Rather than treating our original analysis as static, Peaks to People intentionally adapts and evolves as new science becomes available. This allows us to continuously refine priorities, improve effectiveness, and maximize the impact of every dollar invested.
That commitment to adaptive, science-driven decision-making is what sets Peaks to People apart.
Why This Matters
The Big Thompson Initiative was never just about reaching a fixed acreage target. It was about building a collaborative, data-driven model for protecting water supplies at landscape scale.
With WIT 3.0, we are:
- Improving how projects are prioritized
- Increasing return on investment
- Aligning partners around the most current science
- Strengthening long-term watershed resilience
In short, we are becoming smarter and more effective over time—ensuring every investment moves us closer to a singular goal: protecting the water our communities depend on.
Invest in What Works
Wildfire risk to Northern Colorado’s water supplies is real. But so is our ability to respond strategically.
WIT 3.0 gives us the clarity to invest where actions will matter most—protecting drinking water, communities, infrastructure, and forests before the next severe wildfire occurs.
With your support, Peaks to People can continue advancing science-based solutions that reduce wildfire risk and safeguard clean, reliable water for generations to come.